HARIRI: Lebanon’s Trojan Horse 

In ancient Troy, when repetitive military assaults failed to bring the city to submission, the invading armies faked a truce and made a peace offering. The large wooden horse made from the invaders’ ships was supposed to signify and solidify the peace treaty. Instead, as we all know, it was filled with hidden soldiers who brought Troy down. The peace offering proved to be nothing more than a ploy to circumvent Troy’s defenses and defeat it from within. 

Even though city walls and wooden horses filled with armed men have long been relegated to the annals of history, the analogy remains as valid today as it ever was. When resistance proves too resilient to break from the outside, the enemy will try to find a way to circumvent the defenses and undo it from within. 

Rafic Hariri, dubbed by his supporters as the “savior of Lebanon”, who was supposed to deliver the country from its war torn state and rebuild it into a twenty first century miracle with support from the Arab and international communities has done just the opposite. In the past six years the Hariri regime has managed to do more damage to Lebanon and its long term prospects than the previous sixteen years of brutal bombardment. His economic miracle is in finding ways to rob Lebanon’s current and future generations of their wealth, destroy the very essence of  Lebanese society and deprive the Lebanese of the basic capacity to rise from the ashes of war. 

The war in Lebanon is often blamed on internal sectarian conflicts drawing external support into the fray, often unwittingly. Superficially, one may buy into this theory, A convenient escape theory, blaming the Lebanese for their misery and absolving all others, even holding the Lebanese responsible for the suffering of others. The operative word being Superficially. Upon the first peek below this glossy surface, the realities quickly dispel all such statements, making them sound ludicrous and insulting to the intelligence. 

Tens of billions of dollars - some estimate over $100 billion - and more than 100,000 lives have been, and continue to be, spent by non-Lebanese in this conflict. Many a political career has been destroyed, governments fell and bilateral relations irreparably damaged across the globe due to involvement in Lebanon. Neither the few seats in parliament nor the constitutional changes made by the Taif Accord can possibly justify all this. 

What then was at the core of the conflict, which justifies such enormous sacrifices and expenses? Economics. Not the Lebanese economy, but control of the region’s economy with its vast petroleum reserves and the money and power that stems from them. Those who control and guard the gates to the Middle East petrodollars yield tremendous global power. 

In 1975, Beirut was the main gate through which the world gained access to the region’s wealth. Lebanon’s cultural and educational connections to both East and West, along with the extensive Lebanese business network, free economic environment and enterprising spirit made it the ideal business hub and, thus, the main business broker in the region, through which almost all petrodollars and derivative business passed. In the early 1970’s, financial analysts in London and New York were fretting over the massive wealth Lebanese banks and businesses would control - some estimated it to be 25% of the world’s cash flow by the Early 1990’s - if events continued to develop along the same path. A mighty sum that translates into substantial global leverage for such a small country. 

Thereby lies the true cause of the protracted war that was to befall Lebanon. No, this is not a conspiracy theory. In fact, had there been a true conspiratorial effort, the war would have never started. A point clearly illustrated by the protracted and turbulent nature of the events that followed clearly illustrate the contradictory objectives of the various players. Simply put, economic converged and were served by political movements and aspirations. 

The Arabs, specially the Syrians, ever loath of Lebanon’s existence as a non-Islamic state suspect of being a Western beachhead controlling the regions wealth, were eager to assert control over the country. The Palestinians were to pave the way for this offensive and gain an operational base that would not endanger any of the other Arab countries and expose them to direct warfare. The Soviets also viewing Lebanon as a Western style threat to its allies and ideology, whole heartedly supported the move. 

On the other hand, the West and the US in particular the petrodollars residing in the middle east with suspicion. It was too close to the other side for comfort. The war would bring Lebanese talent and wealth westwards, and with it the ultimate control of the economic process. Without local residence of the petrodollars, the Middle East would never be capable of fully resisting Western influence. The Israelis, with an eye towards prospective economic integration into the region stood to benefit tremendously from the destruction of its main competitor and the regions main economic engine.  

Almost every one had an interest in either initiating or allowing the initiation of hostilities. The internal squabble was nothing more than a thin vale for the events. 

Of course the biggest mistake, often fatal, committed by anyone is underestimating their foes. The war was never meant to last this long or take this many twists and turns. It was envisioned as a swift execution. Outnumbered and out gunned, the Lebanese Christians, were not expected to stand a chance, fleeing and taking the Moslem upper class with them, signaling the end of Lebanon as we knew it. Many Western countries opened their borders to anyone willing to relocate, with immediate citizenship being granted.  

But, the Lebanese proved more resilient than anyone could have imagined and sixteen years later, in 1990, and in spite of the massive losses and extreme circumstances they had to endure, they remained a viable nation with the potential of rising quickly from the ashes of war to reclaim their place in the sun and reestablish Lebanon as the main economic center in the region. The vain attempts at separating the people and creating internal schisms had minimal effect. The Lebanese were more committed to their national identity than ever, Western businesses were re converging to Beirut, after failing to find a true alternative, Western sponsorship had disappeared and the Palestinian tool was no longer viable with the peace process in full swing. Lebanon had survived and was once again reinventing itself like the legendary Phoenix, defying  all expectations. 

Lebanon's rebirth would have meant that the massive amounts of money and blood sacrificed over the years would have been in vain. Unable to destroy Lebanon through conventional warfare and external pressure, an alternative had to be found. If the Lebanese would flee in the face of adversity and abandon their country, then the country must be dismantled while they reside in it making it impossible to live in. After which, even if they remained, there would not be much they could do. 

Enter Hariri, the “butcher” of Lebanon. The Saudi money man, who helped finance and perpetuate the conflict through Billions of dollars distributed to all sides, with extra bonuses handed out to those going beyond the call of duty in their destructive behavior, was now suddenly transformed into an angel of mercy. The man who had long ago denounced his Lebanese citizenship and affiliations and became a Saudi loyal subject was now reclaiming his roots. The same sources of “death funds” were now trying to convince the Lebanese that they had a sudden change of heart and wanted to help Lebanon rebuild the damage they themselves helped bring upon it. 

Under the pretext of reconstruction needs and in the name of law and order the Hariri cartel is destroying Lebanon’s future and its prospects for reemergence. In the past years Hariri’s government has, through policies and regulations, intensified sectarian divisions, eliminated most freedoms, economic, political and social and straddled the country with more debt than the previous 100 years, and channeling every available and future cent into the pockets of the Hariri cartel. The Syrians were entrusted to insure submission. Anyone opposed to the plan would suffer grave consequences, while those participating in Lebanon’s slaughter would share the loot. 

It is often claimed that without Hariri and his international credibility there would be no reconstruction. He is credited with bring loads of money into the country to finance infrastructure work and rejuvenate the economy. He, as some would state it is indispensable. Nothing more than smoke and mirrors. 

Anyone familiar with investors in Lebanon and related opinions knows that the only driver is the belief in Lebanon and the capabilities of the Lebanese people. No one invests in a country based on one man’s credibility, as we are all mortal and will not be their forever. In fact the Hariri policies and government decisions have dramatically slowed done the inflow of funds and resulted in massive misappropriations.