Crossing the Rubicon

When US troops marched onto Baghdad with the clear objective of eliminating the rule of terror and beginning the process of democratization in the region, we crossed the Rubicon and now have no choice but to win decisively. 

Should the US fail to stabilize Iraq and achieve a discernable political change in the region and a significant reduction of the terrorist threat, the consequences will be far reaching. If the terrorists outlast us and retain or enhance their pre-war capabilities, they will look victorious in the eyes of the region’s population. 

Attacks against the US and our international interests will rise substantially and our international relations, particularly in the Middle East, will suffer. Islamic militants, emboldened by their ability to survive and rebound from the massive US military assault, will settle for nothing less than gaining full control of the region’s Governments. Fundamentalists have already succeeded in discrediting regional Governments as impotent and ineffective and will ride this overwhelming public disillusionment into power. 

A fundamentalist take over of the region’s Governments will have serious political and economic repercussions on the US for years to come. 

Politically, failure to stabilize the region and subdue Islamic militants substantially erodes America’s superpower status and emboldens others to challenge the US with little fear of repercussions. Should the terrorist threat persist and grow, the American public will be extremely hesitant to support future foreign operations, further reducing our international influence and deterrence. And, coming on the heels of a heated confrontation with the UN and much of the international community, the US will be held responsible for any negative effects of the war.  

Economically, the fundamentalists will shift their activity away from the US and towards Asia and Europe, with a substantial impact on our international trade and corporate operations. As they gain power, directly or indirectly, they are also likely to replace the US dollar with the Euro and other currencies as their preferred international currencies. Such a move, particularly as it involves oil pricing, will have substantial devaluating effect on the dollar with devastating effects on the US economy and standard of living. 

The Islamic Militants’ Strategy

The Islamic Militants are operating within a strategy that is much broader than Iraq. Their goal from the start has been to topple as many Governments in the Middle East to gain a power base from which they can propagate their Islamic edicts.  

They are taking advantage of the political vacuum in Iraq and the natural opposition of the surrounding countries to freedom and democracy to infiltrate the country and capture political power from the bottom up. They are preying on popular fears and distrust of the US, etched into the collective consciousness through decade of propaganda. 

They realize that every successful attack adds to their credibility and makes their proclaimed goal of evicting the US from the region ever more believable to the general public. Those attacks are not designed to militarily defeat the US, but rather to scuttle any economic and political progress, discredit the whole process and turn public opinion in the region and the US against it. In this they are succeeding in eroding local support for US policy and eliminating the public will to resist the terrorist drive. The Iraqis are now more afraid of what the terrorists will do to them after we leave than they are interested in what we can do for them. Support in the US for military involvement also continues to wane with every additional casualty. 

While the bulk of the attacks are taking place in the Sunni triangle, it is a mistake to construe that to mean that the Sunnis or die-hard Saddam loyalists are the key players. No doubt ex-regime members are involved as are the Sunnis who fear a Shiite and Kurd dominated Iraq. However, Shiite fundamentalists have been extremely active in the insurgency, while hiding behind a well orchestrated deceptive strategy. They intentionally keep their activity within the Baghdad and central region to keep the coalition chasing shadows of Saddam while they build their networks and consolidate their power base.  

The tens of thousands of Iraq fundamentalists who returned from Iran after the war along with scores of Iranian and Hizbullah advisers are just as opposed to the US plan as the Sunni fundamentalists. They have spent the past eight months building their political infrastructure, while insuring that all potential relations between the US and the Sunni elite are forever broken. Now they no longer fear a repeat of 1991, where they rose too quickly and spooked the US, which turned back to Saddam with devastating consequences. As such, we are now witnessing the Shiites asserting their voices, demanding an Islamic Iraq and undermining the establishment of a pro-Western Iraq from within the system.   

Islamic militants have also intensified their activity in neighboring countries with a particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia, which they view as another critical front in their war against the US. Using the Governments’ acquiescence to the invasion of Iraq and failure to face up to Israel, the militants are gaining political ground and coming dangerously close to toppling several regimes.  

The Risks of Failure

The power struggle in Saudi Arabia between the Government and Islamic insurgents has reached a breaking point, with the royal family literally fighting for its life. That struggle is directly affected by fundamentalists’ successes in Iraq and is viewed by the Islamists as part of the same war for control of the region. Should fundamentalists take control of Saudi Arabia and establish a permanent presence in Iraq, the smaller Gulf States will soon follow as they get wedged between Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. 

On the Western front, the Syrian Government has been the most ardent supporter of the Iraqi insurgency to prevent a pro-American democracy from taking hold. However, a fundamentalist victory in Iraq, especially if coupled with the fall of the Saudi royal family, will make the Syrian regime the next target. The fundamentalists have never concealed their opposition to the secular Syrian regime and have always argued that theirs is an alliance of convenience and temporary interests. 

Thus, if fundamentalism takes hold in Iraq, the Assad regime will be viewed as a hindrance to their regional domination as opposed to the asset it has been considered so far, particularly if fundamentalism gains the upper hand in other countries as well. A fundamentalist regime in Damascus will become the preferred choice that creates a continuum from Iran to the Mediterranean.

Yet, unlike Saudi Arabia, Assad does not have the Islamic credentials to fight the Islamic militants head on without risking an immediate collapse of his regime. Assad cannot be counted on to do what the Saudi family is doing. As such the Syrians will continue to support the fundamentalists and work to keep them fragmented in Iraq to prevent them from becoming a threat to Syria. 

However, given the geographic and demographic nature of Iraq, this strategy is doomed to fail. Iraq has a Shiite majority that is contiguous with Iran over which Syria has little leverage. Should the US fail to stabilize Iraq, an Iranian style theocracy is almost guaranteed to immerge, putting the Syrian regime directly in the line of fire. 

The war with Israel is the third primary element of the strategy and the one that provides the fundamentalists with their strongest popular appeal. Proclaiming their goal to liberate Jerusalem and sustaining their attacks against Israel at any cost gives them the necessary credibility and broad appeal they need to carry on their war throughout the region. Israel also grants them the justification to turn their guns on the Governments of Syria and Jordan as a necessary step to reach Israel. 

Even if we manage to maintain a hold on most of Iraq, the regional strategy of the Islamic militants is to surround and isolate our Iraqi presence to make it untenable to sustain on the long run. 

US Policy

In its attempt to appease regional tyrants who controlled the world’s largest oil reserves, and believing that freedom and democracy were incompatible with the region’s culture, the free world, lead by the US, contributed to the rise in Islamic fundamentalism.  

For too long Washington argued that dictators are the best guard against fundamentalism, ignoring all arguments that dictators and the lack of freedom were the main breeding ground for fundamentalism. Middle Eastern regimes created a state of hopelessness among their people that made any alternative look appealing. With all venues for voicing their opinions closed, the Mosques and radical preachers became the only alternative. 

The tyrants controlled the terrorists in the most expeditious and safe way they knew, by diverting their attacks against other countries including the US. The tyrants we accepted and supported deflected any criticism of their policies towards the west and the US arguing that it was us who are preventing development and progress in the Moslem world, which contributed to the prevalent distrust and hatred of the US.  

That policy has changed with the realization that appeasement and accommodation only lead to bolder attacks and more terror. This policy change has set the stage for a true victory over terror and the implementation of democracy. However, victory can only be achieved by countering the full spectrum of the war waged against us in all its aspects. 

Most importantly, we need a clear victory that earnestly begins the process of reversing the reign of terror and undoing the underpinnings of global terrorism. 

Regional Strategy

Democracy and a free economy require a long time to materialize in a fragmented country like Iraq that has never known either. The process is made even harder by the destabilizing effect of terrorist operations. Should we make Iraq the measuring stick of our success, we will be setting ourselves up for failure as Islamic militants destabilize Iraq and the region and surround us with Islamic regimes. 

Thus, as we face an enemy with a broad regional war strategy, the US will be remiss to confine its counter offensive to Iraq. The US should broaden its strategy regionally to eliminate the main breeding grounds for militants obstructing the rebuilding of Iraq and the peace process, support existing democracies and gradually introduce freedoms in a way that sustains stability and prevents power vacuums that risk being filled by the only organized political movements - fundamentalists. 

The economic prosperity that results from nurturing and introducing freedoms also infuses hope into the region’s population that counters the fundamentalist’s image as the only way out from the current hopeless conditions of oppression and destitution.   

A decisive reduction in terrorist capabilities and a visible infusion of democracy and freedom in the Middle East will also vindicate the US, even if democracy takes time to materialize in Iraq, and will help safeguard US interests and provide a base for continued involvement. 

Hunting down individual operatives without shutting down the training bases is doomed to failure, as the supply of new recruits is certain to exceed the rate at which we can find and eliminate them. Tracking and cutting off funding has also proven futile, as the fundamentalists rely on contributions from millions of supporters from around the world, the majority of which come from legitimate businesses and do not directly relate to any terror operations. Much of the money goes towards apparently benign charities and social services, which form the primary venue for Islamic indoctrination that broadens the militants support base and pool of potential recruits. 

Money and willing recruits require venues that use the money to train the militants, provide them with safe havens from which they can attack and deliver the necessary logistical support. 

The two most effective war tactics are 1) Disruption of the enemy’s command and control centers and supply lines and 2) psychological warfare that weakens the enemy’s resolve to fight. These are even more critical in the war on terror. 

First the foot soldiers are much harder to find and neutralize, making the need to disrupt the supply lines and command centers ever so much more critical. Second the fundamentalists depend to a large extent on psychological intimidation. If the public believes they are winning, no one will stand in the way of their bloodthirsty drive and many begin to drift into their camp. However, should the mayhem they create prove to no avail, then they lose support and face stiff local opposition. 

While terrorism is a global problem with multiple operating centers and sources of support, none compare to Syrian occupied Lebanon in potency and importance to global terrorism. Yet, none is easier to eliminate, as Lebanon remains the soft underbelly of global terrorism. 

The Lebanon Front

Supporting the re-emergence of democracy and freedom in Lebanon is the least costly, fastest and most effective starting point for countering the regional Islamic militant offensive and reversing their expansion. 

In Lebanon, we can count on an overwhelming majority with a deep-rooted commitment to freedom and existing democratic institutions that merely need to be release from their bondage and allowed to function properly. The timing of the upcoming Presidential and Parliamentary elections presents an ideal opportunity to resurrect democracy in Lebanon with minimal risk. 

In helping resurrect democracy and freedom in Lebanon and eliminating the free reign of the fundamentalists, we:

Ø      Establish a clear showcase for democracy in the region.

Ø      Eliminate one of the most effective terrorist support and logistical centers.

Ø      Substantially reduce the regional and global terrorist threat.

Ø      Deal a severe psychological blow to Islamic militancy and discredit their victory claims.

Ø      Enhance the chances of success in building a modern Iraq and reaching peace in Israel.

Ø      Enhance security and guard against political instability that serves only the terrorists.

Ø      Secure a critical political and economic foothold that enhances our leverage in the region. 

Furthermore, by using the UN as the primary venue for undoing the rule of terror in Lebanon, we will reunite the international community, particularly the free world, broaden and strengthen the anti-terror alliance and reassert US global leadership. 

Terror’s Soft Underbelly

The overwhelming majority of Lebanese from all sects are ardently opposed to Islamic militancy and detest the conditions those organizations have created in the country. The Lebanese are deeply committed to freedom and coexistence with a long history of democracy and institutional government. 

This makes the elimination of the crucial terror hub in Lebanon a much easier task than any other. The unanimous international consensus in support of Lebanon’s sovereignty and removal of illegal armed operations, coupled with multiple UN resolutions and UN forces on the ground further simplifies the process and enhances the chances for success. 

In addition, the Syrian Government is in no position to challenge the international community at this point and will be angling for any deal that would insure its survival. And, the long-standing Arab Governmental opposition to eliminating Islamic militants from Lebanon has all but disappeared as those Governments face local Islamic insurgencies supported from the Lebanese bases. 

In Lebanon our enemies are largely imported and imposed on the population. The removal of foreign dominance will result in a spontaneous re-emergence of a democratic free society that would lead the way in furthering the cause of freedom throughout the region. 

Lebanon does not require a massive invasion or a large deployment of US resources to achieve success. A clear commitment by the international community to support the Lebanese in their quest for sovereignty and rule of law will suffice to unshackle the existing opposition to change the situation from within. 

If the will to implement UN resolutions exists, the mandate of the existing contingent of UN troops in Lebanon can be expanded to monitor and support the re-establishment of democracy and eliminating terrorist camps, including monitoring upcoming elections to insure true representation away from Syrian dictate. 

Setting The Standard

Lebanon has long been the place where regional standards are set. Up until the 1970s Lebanon set the standard for development, freedom and democracy. So effective was Lebanon’s example that it triggered a profusion of movements in the region attempting to emulate the Lebanese experience in their own countries. 

Sadly, those movements soon found themselves exiled in Lebanon, the only country that truly allowed them the freedom to voice their opinions. But, that too was short lived. Threatened by the Lebanese example of freedom and democracy, regional leaders set out to eliminate that threat. In this, the region’s dictators found common cause with Islamic fundamentalists who opposed democracy due to its lack of adherence to their strict interpretation of Islamic law. 

The war helped channel the fundamentalist movement away from other Governments and give it a new focus where it can be supported without the risk of rebellion. Portraying the war in Lebanon as a religious war also served to camouflage the attack on freedom and gain the support and acceptance of the region’s population, which was lead believe that the war was in defense Muslim freedoms. 

Resurrecting the democratic process will allow Lebanon to once again serve as an example and support base for regional reform and democratic forces and re-introduce hope that change is possible outside Islamic militancy. 

Lebanon offers an ideal launching pad for democracy and freedom and a perfect show case for the benefits that come with such political change. Unlike other countries in the region, Lebanon has existing democratic institutions and a deep commitment to freedom and the rule of law. This allows for an expedient resurrection of a free society with minimal hurdles providing a strong vindicating argument for the US objectives against claims that we are only there for the oil. 

Lebanon has extensive economic capacity both resident and expatriate and existing laws to regulate a free economy that allows for a quick economic resurgence with minimal foreign infusion of funds. The economic growth and prosperity resulting from freeing Lebanon can be showcased to the region as the true benefit of democratization. 

Lebanon’s expected fast economic recovery will showcase the benefits of freedom and democracy in clear contrast to the economic stagnation during Hizbullah’s and Syria’s reign. It clearly illustrates that the mayhem they create only makes life miserable for their people, while resulting in no discernable benefit. 

Resurrecting democracy in Lebanon will also provide an example of clear compatibility between democracy and Islam, as the Moslem half of Lebanon enjoys freedoms and prosperity. Lebanon brings the principle of democracy home, where it will no longer be a foreign Western ideology. 

Reversing The Triumph of Terror

The rise of Islamic terrorism began almost three decades ago in Beirut with Palestinian terrorists blowing up planes and killing diplomats in the early 70s. International reaction and response to those attacks set the stage for bolder attacks that culminated in the free world openly ceding control of Lebanon to the terrorists lead by Hizbullah and the Assad regime of Damascus after the attacks on the US Marines and French barracks. 

Hizbullah’s apparent victory in Lebanon in 1983 stands out as the most important military and psychological turning point in the rise of Islamic fundamentalism. In allowing terrorists to win in Lebanon, the free world helped set a new standard that illustrated the effectiveness of terror against a clearly much stronger adversary. The Hizbullah example gave credence to Islamic terrorism, and became the main propaganda tool in recruiting and mobilizing Islamic militants, including Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, Bosnia, Kossovo, Chechnya, Israel, Iraq, the Arabian peninsula and even New York and Washington. 

The apparent victory of Hizbullah in Lebanon, first against the multi-national forces in 1983 and then Israel, became the guiding light for other terrorists around the world. The Palestinians were quick to emulate Hizbullah’s tactics in hopes of achieving the same success in evicting Israel from their land. And now Islamic militants in Iraq are following the same path, while Saudi Arabia and Turkey are facing similar insurgencies. 

Defeating and eliminating the reign of terror in Lebanon and cutting Hizbullah back to size will clearly illustrate to the Iraqis, Palestinians and others the fleeting nature of Islamic militancy. This will be particularly potent if Hizbullah is cut back through free elections that demonstrate the public’s exacerbation with their political tyranny.   

Shutting Down The Terror Nexus

Over the past 25 years the Syrians and Iranians have transformed Lebanon into the main terrorist breeding ground and support infrastructure for regional and global terrorism. 

In Lebanon new recruits from around the world combine with funding and military know-how before being dispatched to their ultimate target, including Iraq, Israel and the US. Today, Syrian occupied Lebanon is the main source of support for terror operations in both Iraq and Israel. Recruits from around the world arrive in Lebanon to be trained, equipped and transferred to Iraq to fight US soldiers. Hizbullah is also beginning to overshadow Hamas and Islamic Jihad – themselves, Damascus based and Hizbullah trained - in the Palestinian territories with its flags waving high in every public gathering and funeral.   

Furthermore, in Lebanon terrorist organizations meet and cooperate away from the glaring eyes of the world intelligence community. Hizbullah, with Syrian and Iranian support, has used its success in Lebanon to launch an effort to unify the global Islamic fundamentalists, reaching out to every terrorist organization for cooperation and coordination. Beginning with operatives in the Palestinian territories and Afghanistan and passing through Bosnia, Kossovo, Chechnya and Somalia, the effort culminated in a global conference in Beirut in early 2001, whereby Islamic terrorists pledged to work together as one against the “infidel” US lead West, a few months before 9/11. 

As an open society Lebanon allows individuals, funds and materials to move freely and provides the main base for the terrorist propaganda machine, including Hizbullah’s Al-Manar satellite TV and radio station. Without such extensive support networks and safe havens, all the potential recruits and donors will be unable to launch attacks against US interests. 

Shutting down this terror nexus in Lebanon will deprive both Iraqi and Palestinian operations of their prime source of support and make a speedy resolution of both problems much more likely. Without access to Lebanon, terror benefactors will lose much of their capability to launch attacks and undermine peace and freedom in the region and internationally. 

Psychological Effect

The fundamentalists’ victory in Lebanon also has a potent psychological effect on Islamists, since the overwhelming majority of the Lebanese vehemently oppose fundamentalism and whole-heartedly espouse freedom, democracy and coexistence. As such, Lebanon was considered the least likely to fall under fundamentalist dominion. Yet terror tactics were allowed to prevail and gain the acceptance and deference of the international community. 

The lessons learned by other Islamic movements were simple. If terror can get the free world to turn its back on a people with whom it shares so much common values and beliefs and a country with as high an economic and cultural value to their cause in the Middle East, then the fight is bound to be much easier in places with deep Islamic traditions and little common ground with the West.  

Islamists also viewed the fight in Lebanon as one against Israeli interests who did not want a fundamentalist state on its border. Thus, success in Lebanon carries much more psychological value than the size of Lebanon would otherwise suggest. 

Thus, the psychological impact on global terrorism from ending Hizbullah’s reign of terror in Lebanon will be immeasurable. As the glaring terrorist success story, Hizbullah’s defeat and elimination sends the clearest message to terrorist and their potential supporters world wide that theirs is a loosing battle. It will take the wind out of the Islamic movement’s propaganda that continuously showcases Hizbullah as the example to emulate. 

Political and Economic Gateway

Lebanon represents a prime gateway to the region on the Eastern Mediterranean for all aspects of US economic, political and military involvement. Gaining economic access to the Middle East through Lebanon also provides added political leverage as US businesses establish alternate operations centers that reduce dependency on any one regime and the risk associated with instability. 

Even under the current conditions, Lebanon continues to serve as the prime gateway for US economic relations with the Middle East, as asserted by most US corporations who insist that they cannot operate in the region without Lebanon. A Lebanon freed politically will quickly regain its pre-war capabilities to help secure and expand US economic interests in the region and serve as a major economic and financial center for regional operations. The Lebanese extensive and established business operations and excellent relations throughout the region provide any business operating in Lebanon with a broad network that helps facility regional operations and expansions. 

Lebanon will offer a clear alternative to the Gulf economic gateway making US economic interests less dependent on those countries, giving the US much more leverage in its regional relations and insuring economic interests against the risk of instability. 

Lebanon also affords US companies with established and well-developed banking and financial services that are crucial for business operations. The highly skilled Lebanese work force with extensive operations and relations throughout the region is an ideal partner for strengthening and expanding US business and economic relations. 

Together with the strong relations in the Gulf States, Lebanon offers substantial economic opportunities, many of which have already been explored and tabled due to the militant operations in Lebanon. Among those are direct Port-Rail-Port transport system between Beirut and Dubai, which reduces the time and cost of shipments between the Mediterranean and the Gulf by more than 30% and eliminates the risk of going through the sues canal and the straights of Aden bottle necks. Oil pipelines to the Mediterranean represent another economic and cost saving opportunity. The full list of economic benefits is beyond the scope of this paper. 

In addition, Lebanon is a part of both the Euro-Med agreement and the Arab Free Trade agreement and has preferential trade relations with dozens of other countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and even Latin America. Those agreements make Lebanon an ideal operating center and partner for US companies seeking to do business in these countries. 

On the political front, the extensive Lebanese personal relations in the region, particularly the Syrian, Palestinian and Iraqi people and the large expatriate populations from those countries residing in Lebanon and experiencing freedom would facilitate the transfer of the Lebanese experience into those countries and make establishing democracies there much more probable. 

Lebanon can serve as a center for regional forums that develop and implement strategies for liberalizing the region in ways that remain compatible with the local cultures and guard against instability. From Lebanon democracy can make its way into the region in a more subtle manner, not as a foreign imposition that must be opposed. After all, Lebanon is the historical birthplace of democracy. 

The Syrian Dimension

The Syrian regime is the main culprit in transforming Lebanon from a shining example of freedom and democracy to the main nexus of terror. Although the Syrian regime is essentially secular, it owes its existence and prominence to its support of Islamic terrorists. 

Syria has transformed itself from a poor backwaters country into a major international player simply through its sponsorship of terror. Today, the world turns to Syria with deference only because of the damage the Syrian regime can do through its terrorist tentacles. Syria has kept Islamic organizations safely in Lebanon to avoid confronting them in Syria, maintain deniability and avoid accountability. 

More importantly, terrorism is the mainstay of Syria’s occupation of Lebanon and the main source of income valued at over $10 Billion annually to a country which otherwise should be bankrupt. The Syrian regime receives billions of dollars annually from Islamic terror benefactors in return for its sponsorship of operations in and through Lebanon. Syria further siphons billions of dollars from the Lebanese economy and the narcotics trade it sponsors in the Bekaa valley. 

The Syrian regime should not be expected to spontaneously relinquish this economic and political windfall and risk a potential collapse of the regime by directly confronting the fundamentalists. The potential loss of trade with the US pales in comparison and is likely to have no effect on Syria’s policies. Without its support for terrorism that allows its occupation of Lebanon, Syria loses its value for terrorist benefactors, its access to the billions its siphons from Lebanon and its political clout that comes with the terrorist network it maintains in Lebanon.  

However, the Syrian regime is facing a serious dilemma as the success of the terrorist it supported is now beginning to pose a direct threat to its rule. This creates a golden opportunity to alter Syria’s policies and gain a major victory in the war on terror. The Syrian regime is in a very week bargaining position and susceptible to approaches that will avoid the sudden death it faces from confronting the fundamentalists or allowing them to proceed with their regional strategy. 

A free, democratic and economically stable Lebanon with solid international commitment can form the bases for gradually transforming Syria while avoiding a potentially destabilizing collapse of the regime. The Assad regime can be offered a face saving exit in which Syria eases out of Lebanon and accepts the reformulation of its economic and political relations with Lebanon in a way that saves his regime and guarantees economic survival. 

Currently, the only organized political groups that can replace Assad are Islamic fundamentalists, which make any move towards democracy extremely risky. However, through Lebanon and the large Syrian expatriate community there, new political movements can immerge coupled with economic capabilities that can gradually make their way into the Government structure. Given the dire alternative of facing the fundamentalists’ guns, Assad can be convinced to open up to such political movements and retain a role in Syria’s future. 

As countries like Saudi Arabia battle fundamentalist insurgencies, Assad’s abandonment of the fundamentalists in Lebanon will have a positive effect on Syria’s relations with those countries rather than the negative effect it would have had in recent years. Economically, the Syrians will need to replace the billions they reap from terror operations, lest they face certain rebellion from a starving population that will be openly susceptible to fundamentalist propaganda. 

A prosperous and vibrant Lebanese economy that serves as a gateway for Western businesses in the region will have a substantial effect on the Syrian economy on many levels. Lebanese based companies, domestic and foreign can take advantage of Syria’s low labor costs for basic materials and labor and help infuse substantial needed capital into the country. Syria also benefits from transit fees for all business conducted through Lebanon to the region as well as having access to the financial and marketing expertise in Lebanon for Syrian businesses and products. 

The Syrians are already looking to Lebanon for help in liberalizing their economy, including establishing private banking laws. This process can be accelerated to allow for faster economic development. Linking the economic aspect to Assad’s openness to new democratic political forces and changing its policies will insure Syria’s ultimate transformation into a more liberal and open society away from the rejectionist position it now holds. 

Finally, a liberalized Syria will require massive rebuilding to bring it into the twenty first century, which opens up lucrative opportunities that are more likely to go to American companies if the democratic forces in Syria owe their resurgence to the US. 

Ideal Timing

Elections schedules in Lebanon make this the ideal time to peacefully free Lebanon from the Syrian-Iranian stranglehold and allow the rule of law and freedom to re-emerge. Both presidential and Parliamentary elections are scheduled for next year, which would also necessitate a new Government, effectively providing for a total replacement of the Lebanese Governing body. 

The Syrians have unconstitutionally expanded Parliament’s mandate by nine months to insure that the next president is elected by the current Parliament, which they are sure they control. The Syrians are now angling to have the Parliament unconstitutionally extend the president’s mandate. 

Under UN supervision and with clear international commitment to Lebanon’s sovereignty, the unconstitutional Parliamentary extension should be rescinded allowing for election in early summer of 2004 that produce a truly representative Parliament. 

The Parliament will them elect the new President in early fall 2004, who in turn will be representative of the public will. Together, the Parliament and President appoint a new Government of the same caliber. 

The timing allows for a speedy transformation of Lebanon back into a fully functioning democracy without the need to unseat Governments or military invasions. 

Using existing UN mandates and international forces to oversee the process also avoid the potential contentious opposition that the US could face by doing it alone and re-establishes America’s uncontested global leadership. Even the most avid opponents of democracy will have a hard time developing an argument against granting the Lebanese their freedom under international supervision. 

Lebanon’s New Government

Lebanon’s new Government will have a clear internationally backed mandate to:

1. Insure a total and unequivocal withdrawal Syrian soldiers and agents from Lebanon.
2. Purge Syria’s and terrorists’ agents from all branches of the Lebanese Government.
3. Eliminate paramilitary and terrorist operations from Lebanese territory, including Hizbullah and Palestinian organizations.
4. Settle the issue of the Shabaa farms with Syria and Israel through the UN and the International courts.
5. Re-establish an independent judicial system to insure the rule of law in Lebanon.
6. Establish full diplomatic relations with Syria on par with those with other Arab countries.
7. Begin true and honest negotiations for final peace settlement with Israel.
8. Re-establish Lebanon’s role as a bridge between East and West to help enhance cooperation, communications and understanding between the two sides that have grown further apart.
9. Establish a base for assisting other countries and organizations in implementing democracy throughout the region.

NALA Policy Committee: Ziad Nassar, Joseph L Boohaker, Toufic Nassif, Toufic Baaklini, Ghassan Raad